Trisura Unchained?
Last Friday, Trisura Group (TSU in Canada, TRRSF in the US) — a small Canadian P&C insurer, jumped 10%+ after reporting its Q4 results the previous night. I was not surprised by the jump, as I have held Trisura since its 2018 spinoff from Brookfield, expecting it to eventually resume the ascent interrupted in 2021 by underwriting mistakes.
Rather, I was pleasantly surprised by what caused this jump. More about it later.
Last time I wrote about Trisura on September 7, 2025 — “Trisura Surety Expansion: A High-Potential Growth Engine” — and the illustration from that post, reused today, is still relevant.
I enjoy my 30% annual IRR and 8.1 MOC over 8.7 years and am still hopeful to see it become a 10-bagger over 10 years. At CAD $49.62, TSU is very close to its all-time high. This level, however, was first reached in 2021, and the stock has gone nowhere since. It’s been painful to hold it for almost five years through all the ups and downs, with little to show. You have to be reasonably confident in fundamentals and management, and committed to compounding on top of this.
There is a good chance that this time will be different and that Trisura will move higher — perhaps much higher — though not necessarily immediately. This explains my title, which borrows its theme from a well-known investor now on Substack. The question mark at the end signals that uncertainties remain.
For a better understanding of what follows, let me briefly recap that Trisura operates in two segments (a better description is available in my previous posts):
Trisura Specialty (formerly Trisura Canada) consists of surety, corporate liability, warranty, and Canadian fronting lines. Initially, it was limited to Canada, but over the last several years, it has expanded into the US, starting with surety and followed by corporate liability.
Trisura US Programs consists of fronting business in both E&S and admitted lines. These programs are backed by reinsurance capital and distributed largely through MGAs. Trisura retains approximately 10–15% of the U.S. Programs business and earns fronting fees on the balance it cedes.
Founded by Brookfield, Trisura Specialty is 20 years old and has a strong underwriting track record. Trisura US Programs was built from scratch after the spinoff. The company has less experience in fronting and has made serious mistakes in this segment since the IPO.