Oscar Health: A Glimmer of Light in the Dark Kingdom?
On June 7, 2024, Oscar Health (OSCR) had its second Investor Day.
At this growth rate, Oscar will be worth at least a 20x multiple or 2.25*20= $40.50 in 2.5 years. It currently trades at ~$22 (I wrote it before the steep drop on July 2), implying ~28% annual return. The company started beating its forecasts right out of the gate. In 2024, its revenue was ~$9.2B vs. 8.3-8.4B forecasted half a year before. In Q1 2025, its revenue grew 42% yoy, much higher than the 20% promised.
And yet, if you're considering investing in Oscar, you may need to set aside meticulous arithmetic, at least for now. In the past 15 months, Oscar has added approximately 1 million members—about as many as it gained in its entire first eleven years. And these members appear to be satisfied: Oscar reports a NPS of ~66 in an industry with a typical NPS range of 10 to 30.
These two metrics matter most. As long as Oscar’s NPS remains high, exponential membership growth is very possible. The financial fundamentals and stock price will follow.
I wish it were that simple.